Dems Seize Cost-of-Living Edge, But Voters Trust Neither Party, Poll Finds

With exactly one month to go before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, American voters are deeply dissatisfied with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party — and Democrats have seized a clear advantage on the issue that dominates kitchen tables across the country: the cost of living. But a new AP-NORC poll released this weekend carries a warning for both parties: very few voters believe either side can actually solve the country's problems.

Voters cast ballots at a polling station. A new AP-NORC poll finds Democrats with a clear advantage on the cost of living one month before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The Cost-of-Living Shift

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, conducted Sept. 24-28 among 2,140 adults including 1,766 registered voters, finds that 38 percent of registered voters say Democrats would be better at handling the cost of living, compared with 27 percent who say that about Republicans. Another 27 percent say they trust neither party on the issue.

That is a striking reversal. As recently as February, the issue was about evenly split among U.S. adults, with roughly 3 in 10 saying each party would be better. The cost of living has proved to be a persistent weak spot for Trump, and the poll suggests Democrats are now converting frustration into a genuine partisan edge.

The gains extend beyond prices. About 4 in 10 registered voters now pick the Democrats on the broader economy, up from 26 percent of U.S. adults in February. Democrats have also built an advantage on healthcare, according to the survey — another subject that dominates household anxiety.

An Electorate Drowning in Cynicism

But the survey's headline numbers for Democrats come with a brutal caveat. Only about 2 in 10 registered voters strongly describe either party as capable of solving important problems or as focused on helping people like them.

The sense of disgust with politics itself cuts through the poll like a fault line. About 6 in 10 registered voters say Republicans are strongly focused on helping rich and powerful people, compared with about 3 in 10 who say the same about Democrats. Yet neither party earns strong marks for focusing on ordinary people.

Aaron Siever, a 41-year-old from southwest Virginia, captures the mood. The former police officer, who now guides Civil War battlefield tours, told the AP he has never been a single-party voter — but is more frustrated than ever with two parties whose chief accomplishment, he says, is blaming each other for getting little done.

"There's so much turmoil," Siever said. "It really messes up chances of getting anything done. It gets really disgusting."

Rising travel costs have forced Siever to raise his tour prices, sharpening his worry over everyday expenses — the same pressure the poll shows is reshaping the national mood.

Voters See Extremism on Both Sides

The poll also finds a public that sees extremes on both sides of the aisle. Some 55 percent of registered voters call Republicans too extreme, while 45 percent say the same about Democrats.

The Democrats' own coalition remains divided about the party's direction. Slightly fewer than half of Democratic voters consider their party too moderate, while a similar share say its approach is about right. Most Republican voters, by contrast, describe their party's position as about right — a sign that the GOP's internal battles are more about results than ideology.

The findings land at a moment when Trump is leaning hard into his own read of the polls. In recent days he has contended on social media that polls have "ALWAYS underestimated MAGA" and framed criticism of the administration as attempts to suppress the vote — a message aimed at keeping his base energized through the final stretch.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington. Control of Congress is at stake in the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm elections.

What This Means

For Democrats, the poll is the clearest evidence yet that the economy — once Trump's signature issue — has become their opening. A double-digit advantage on costs plus a lead on the economy and healthcare is exactly the kind of portfolio challengers dream of one month out from an election.

But the cynicism numbers are the poison in the well. An 11-point edge on the cost of living means far less if the voters handing you that edge simultaneously tell you they don't think you can fix anything. Democrats have gained the issue, but they have not gained trust.

That distinction matters because midterms are decided by turnout, and cynicism is a turnout killer. An electorate that prefers Democrats on prices but doubts Democrats' competence is an electorate that can just as easily stay home — especially when Republicans still command loyalty from most of their own voters.

For the GOP, the numbers confirm the danger: frustration with Republicans is growing, the cost-of-living issue has slipped away, and a majority of voters see the party as too extreme. The administration's closing argument will need to be about more than disputing the polls — it will need to give squeezed voters a reason to believe.

The U.S. Capitol building. Polls suggest a restless electorate, with few voters confident either party can solve major problems.

What Happens Next

The Nov. 3 election will decide control of Congress and shape the final two years of Trump's term. Separate surveys underline how competitive — and uncertain — the landscape remains: an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters found Democrats ahead 52-38 on the congressional ballot, while a CBS News/YouGov survey put the Democratic edge at 54-45 among likely voters.

Both parties face the same final-month task: converting a restless, skeptical electorate into actual votes. Democrats must turn an issue advantage into belief that they will deliver. Republicans must convince voters that the pain of high prices is being addressed.

One month out, the poll's central message is not that Democrats have won the argument — it is that neither party has. And in a country where only 2 in 10 voters strongly believe either side can solve the big problems, the side that earns even a little more trust in the final weeks could decide who controls Congress.