Bolsonaro's Son Stuns Lula in Brazil Vote, Forces Oct 25 Runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, stunned pollsters and finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's first round of voting on Sunday, sending the race to a decisive runoff on October 25.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, addresses Brazil's Senate. He finished first in Sunday's presidential vote with 47.03 per cent. (Photo: Jefferson Rudy/Agência Senado)

With nearly all ballots counted, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) put Bolsonaro at about 47.03 per cent of valid votes — more than 56 million ballots — against roughly 45.16 per cent, or about 53.7 million votes, for Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Neither man reached the more than 50 per cent of valid votes required to win outright, so the two will meet again in a runoff in three weeks' time. The roughly 1.9-point gap was the narrowest margin between the top two candidates in a Brazilian presidential first round since the return of direct presidential elections in 1989, according to Brazilian media.

The result landed as a genuine surprise. Most pre-election polling had shown Lula narrowly ahead: a late Quaest survey cited by Reuters had him at 46 per cent to Bolsonaro's 45 per cent, and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg had Lula leading 43.0 to 37.4 in the final first-round tracking. The pollsters' miss echoed 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro also outperformed surveys before losing to Lula by less than two points. Analysts told Reuters the late surge reflected protest votes against Lula that had previously been expected to arrive only in the second round.

The Night the Pollsters Missed Again

Speaking to reporters outside his home in Brasília after nearly all the votes were counted, Flávio Bolsonaro — a close ally of US President Donald Trump — said Brazil wanted change. "Brazil wants change and I am very happy with the results," he said, declaring that the era of Lula's Workers' Party (PT) was over. He repeated a campaign pledge to end presidential re-election in Brazil, saying he would need only one term.

Lula, for his part, conceded the outcome was not what he had expected. Addressing supporters in São Paulo, he admitted he had been convinced he would win the race outright in the first round. But the 80-year-old promised a new campaign beginning on Monday, leaning on his record of social welfare programs and his rival's legal troubles. He joked that he is "very good in the knockout stage" — a football reference that drew cheers — and said he remained confident of victory on October 25.

The first round was contested by twelve candidates. The also-rans trailed far behind the two frontrunners: right-wing candidates Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado together took nearly eight per cent of the vote, according to Fox News figures, with Caiado at about 2.1 per cent and Santos at 2.2 per cent per The Guardian. Crucially, NPR noted that the candidates who placed third, fourth and fifth were all right-wing — a pool of voters that most analysts see as naturally leaning toward Bolsonaro in the runoff.

Two Brazils on the Map

The regional split once again revealed two different countries. Bolsonaro dominated the economic powerhouse states: he led Lula 52 to 38 per cent in São Paulo, 48 to 43 in Minas Gerais and 53 to 39 in Rio de Janeiro state, Fox News reported. Lula's strongholds held firm — he won Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará by large margins in the northeast, the region that has anchored his political career for decades.

Cost of living, corruption, public security and the economic outlook dominated the campaign, and both men enter the runoff with clear but opposite coalitions: Lula with the poor and the northeast, Bolsonaro with conservatives, evangelical Christians and voters alarmed by crime and public spending.

Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won a Senate seat in the Federal District — her first elected office.

A Family on the March

Sunday was also a triumph for the broader Bolsonaro family. Election authorities confirmed that Michelle Bolsonaro, the 44-year-old wife of Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of the candidate, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, home to the capital, Brasília. A devout evangelical who had never previously held public office, Michelle called her candidacy "a mission" entrusted to her by her husband, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest following his conviction for an attempted coup after the 2022 election.

Other family members won too: according to Fox News, Jair Bolsonaro's son Carlos was also elected to the Senate, while another son, Jair Renan, won a seat in the lower house. The right's gains were not confined to the presidential race. The Guardian reported that 34 of the 54 senators elected were from the right or far right, and Fox News projected that Bolsonaro's Liberal Party would hold 29 Senate seats against just nine for Lula's Workers' Party. Former infrastructure minister Tarcísio de Freitas, a Bolsonaro ally, was re-elected governor of São Paulo.

What This Means

The first-round result transforms what many analysts had treated as Lula's race to lose into a genuinely open contest. Before Sunday, Lula's campaign had banked on his first-round plurality holding through the runoff, with pre-election surveys showing him competitive in head-to-head simulations — including a September Nexus poll that had Bolsonaro a single point ahead and an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey showing a statistical tie at 46.4 to 46.2.

The dynamics of the three-week sprint will hinge on three groups: the roughly eight per cent who backed the right-wing minor candidates, voters who stayed home on Sunday, and the moderate centre that broke late. Bolsonaro's team will argue he has the momentum and the larger natural transfer pool; Lula's will counter that the incumbent machine, the northeast, and a disciplined focus on cost-of-living relief — the issue where polling shows his strongest advantage — can still carry him.

The result also confirmed that the political movement built around Jair Bolsonaro remains a dominant force in Brazilian politics even with its founder in a prison cell. Flávio entered the race only after his father, barred from running, endorsed him as his political successor. He has campaigned on freeing his father, and according to reports he has vowed to pardon him if elected — a promise that has drawn international attention, including from the United States.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, finished second with 45.16 per cent and promised a new campaign for the October 25 runoff. (Official portrait via Wikimedia Commons)

What Happens Next

The runoff campaign officially restarts this week. Both men will face off in televised debates — the final debate before the first round was scrapped after both candidates skipped it — and a fresh round of polling will begin to measure whether Sunday's momentum holds. Market reaction will be watched closely: Latin America's largest economy has spent the campaign under a cloud of fiscal anxiety, with investors betting on who can rein in public spending.

Brazilians return to the polls on October 25. The winner takes office on January 5, 2027, according to The Guardian. With nearly 159 million Brazilians eligible to vote and the margin this tight, the next three weeks promise one of the most fiercely contested runoffs in the country's modern democratic history.