More oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said, as the narrow waterway at the centre of America's nine-month war with Iran produced a fresh wave of maritime incidents — just as diplomacy to end the fighting appeared to stall.
 |
| Oil tankers transit a narrow waterway. Iran reported more tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. (File photo) |
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents on Thursday after the vessels tried to use routes through the strait that Tehran has declared unauthorised, Reuters reported. One tanker struck a naval mine while attempting to cross a passage south of the strait, the IRGC said, while a supertanker caught fire as it was leaving a shipping route in the eastern part of the waterway. A tugboat that approached the supertanker to help extinguish the flames also caught fire, according to the force.
The IRGC gave no details about possible casualties or the extent of the damage to the vessels involved. The claims have not been independently confirmed, and shipping monitors have not yet verified the Iranian account of what happened to the vessels.
A Second Day of Incidents
Thursday's fires followed a similar set of reports a day earlier. On Wednesday, the IRGC said four oil tankers had been destroyed after striking naval mines while attempting to use a prohibited route south of the Strait of Hormuz. The force said the four tankers remained ablaze and that two other vessels had been seized.
Separately, Britain's maritime trade agency reported another incident early on Thursday. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) said it had received a report of a tanker struck by two unidentified projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar. The status of the crew, the damage and any environmental impact were unconfirmed, UKMTO said.
Taken together, the reports point to a sharp quickening of the pace of attacks on shipping. According to UKMTO, at least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday — around the same rate as in October, when the agency said 35 vessels were hit, the most of any month since the war began.
A Waterway at the Centre of the War
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and about a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas passed through it before the war began in February, when the United States and Israel launched a massive wave of strikes against Iran. Around 20 million barrels of oil a day moved through the channel before the fighting started.
Shipping through the strait has never fully stopped. Analysts say crude shipments through the waterway have recovered to close to pre-war levels, though at a higher cost, as shippers, insurers and crews price in the risk of mines, drones and missiles. But the recovery has been fragile, and each new incident tests whether commercial traffic can keep moving through a war zone.
The strait is also Tehran's main point of leverage. Iran has used the threat to shipping to press its demands in negotiations with Washington, offering to reopen the waterway in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the American naval blockade of its ports.
Diplomacy Stalls as a Deal Slips Away
Iran has formally submitted a seven-day roadmap to end the war and is awaiting Washington's response, according to Tehran's top diplomat. Under the plan, which Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi detailed to reporters outside the United Nations Security Council, the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales, release an estimated $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets and observe a ceasefire covering the region, including Lebanon and Yemen. In return, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day, and nuclear talks with the United States would begin on day seven. Iran said this week that the plan could be implemented within two days instead of seven, as Qatari-mediated diplomatic efforts continue.
But the proposal has so far found no takers in Washington. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump has rejected Iran's offer and is privately sceptical that Tehran would meet his demands, quoting unnamed American officials. The report said Trump has told aides he expects a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.
Trump himself has sent mixed signals: he has said the United States has held "very good talks" with Iran and suggested a deal could be within reach, told the Financial Times there are no immediate plans to strike, and answered "No" when asked about strikes after the midterms — while also saying a "heavy hit" remains possible if Tehran does not agree to a deal. Iran's supreme leader warned on Wednesday that the war would widen if the United States resumes its attacks.
The gulf between the two sides remains wide: Iran wants the blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before it makes significant concessions, while Washington wants guarantees on Iran's nuclear programme and an end to attacks on shipping. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides were still far from a deal, even as mediator Qatar stepped up efforts to avert a renewed escalation.
What the Midterms Changed
The tanker fires also landed in a Washington transformed by Tuesday's midterm elections. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on Wednesday that his party intended to use its strengthened position to bring the Iran conflict to an end.
Vice President JD Vance said openly this week that the war was the real reason Republicans lost the midterm elections, writing that a pollster he trusts found many 2024 Trump voters switched to Democrats over four issues: ending the war, the cost of living, putting America first, and the relationship with Israel. Trump said Vance's assessment was "largely true" and acknowledged the war had driven petrol prices up "a little bit, short term," while adding that he would do it again because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
 |
| An aerial view of an oil tanker at sea. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has continued at higher cost despite months of attacks. (File photo) |
What This Means
For American consumers, the stakes in the strait are measured at the petrol pump. The war with Iran and the resulting higher fuel prices were major grievances for voters in Tuesday's rout of Republicans, according to Reuters. Oil markets, which plunged more than 8 percent on Wednesday on bets that a deal was near, turned higher again on Thursday as the tanker reports landed.
Brent crude rose $2.30, or 2.4 percent, to $96.92 a barrel by late morning in New York on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.15 to $90.27, according to Reuters. Analysts said reports of tankers being struck by mines or targeted by drones continue to worry the market, and that investors were also unsettled by Iran's unchanged position in the negotiations. Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed American strikes on Iran to 60 percent from 65 percent after the election — but it also cut the probability of a deal to 10 percent from 20 percent. Eurasia Group said an escalation would probably push Brent into a band of $110 to $125 a barrel — a sharp rise from current levels.
There are cross-currents. JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday that the return of Gulf supply has pushed the global oil market back into surplus after months of war-related disruption. The picture is of a market caught between a fragile supply recovery and a war that keeps flaring back to life in the world's most important oil chokepoint.
 |
| President Donald Trump. (File photo) |
What Happens Next
The immediate question is whether either side moves. Mediators have said they expected feedback from Washington and Tehran within about 36 hours on the latest draft proposals, and a draft agreement has been circulating in Doha, though no signature has been reported.
If the diplomacy fails, the risks run in both directions. A renewed American bombing campaign would almost certainly bring more attacks on shipping and higher oil prices — the same combination that helped cost Republicans the midterms. A deal, on the other hand, would require Trump to accept terms his own aides have described as unacceptable, and Tehran to offer nuclear guarantees it has so far refused. For now, the strait stays open but dangerous, and the war's end remains a matter of which side blinks first.
Post a Comment