One day after Democrats swept to control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, two Senate races remain too close to call — one separated by only a few dozen votes out of nearly a million cast, the other shadowed by a federal criminal investigation into a same-name candidate. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith are effectively tied. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, but a ranked-choice count that cannot begin until November 18 means the outcome may not be known for weeks.
The two uncalled races are the final loose ends of an election night that otherwise delivered a decisive verdict. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats and took control of both chambers of Congress, according to projections by the Associated Press and other major outlets, with 54 Senate seats already secured and 231 House seats. Whether the Democratic Senate majority ends at 54, 55, or 56 seats now depends on Mississippi and Alaska — and on counting processes that could stretch well past the middle of November.
Mississippi: A Margin Measured in Dozens
In Mississippi, the numbers have barely moved since election night, and every update has kept the race within a whisker. As of noon on November 4, CNN, the Associated Press and ABC News all showed Colom ahead of Hyde-Smith by 43 votes, according to the Clarion Ledger. Later in the afternoon, USA Today reported that with nearly 950,000 votes counted, Colom's lead was fewer than 100 votes. Different outlets have shown slightly different tallies as counties report at different speeds — a reminder, election officials say, that the unofficial count is still fluid.
Both candidates have claimed momentum: Hyde-Smith, seeking a second full term, declared herself the winner on election night, while Colom, a district attorney, all but declared victory the morning after. No major decision desk had called the race as of Wednesday afternoon.
The path to a final result runs through two piles of outstanding ballots: the last precinct reports — as of noon on November 4, 11 counties had yet to report 10 percent or more of their ballots, including populous Hinds County, which has favored Colom — and affidavit ballots cast by voters whose eligibility had to be verified. Colom's campaign has said there are around 15,000 affidavit ballots statewide, a figure the Clarion Ledger noted it could not independently confirm with the Secretary of State's office. Those ballots must be validated with voter identification within five business days, by Tuesday, November 10.
Mississippi law adds two wrinkles. Mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive and be counted for up to five days afterward. And unlike some states, Mississippi has no automatic recount law for federal races and no runoff in a general election — the top vote-getter takes the seat, and a recount would have to be sought through a judge. County clerks have 10 days to certify results, putting the deadline at November 13, though officials say a winner could emerge sooner.
The stakes go beyond one seat. Colom's late surge was powered by Hinds County, where he led Hyde-Smith 61,793 to 14,702. If Colom holds on, he would become the first Democrat to win a Mississippi Senate race since John Stennis in 1982.
Alaska: A Lead, a Ranked-Choice Clock, and a Federal Probe
In Alaska, the picture is different but no less uncertain. Peltola, the Democratic challenger, was leading Sullivan by fewer than 1,000 votes in results updated at 12:26 p.m. ET on November 4, with more than 210,000 votes counted — about 74 percent of the total, according to the Associated Press. Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, however, the final tally cannot begin until November 18, and ballots still arriving will extend the count further.
Alaska's race carries an additional complication no other contest in the country shares: a federal criminal investigation into a second candidate named Dan Sullivan. The incumbent Republican senator appears on the ballot as "Sullivan, Dan S." A retired schoolteacher, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., running without party affiliation, appears as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." — a similarity prosecutors are now examining as a possible deliberate effort to confuse voters and peel support from the incumbent.
According to reporting by ABC News, federal prosecutors are issuing more than 100 subpoenas and at least 20 target letters in the investigation, and a federal grand jury in Alaska is examining possible conspiracy and donor-fraud offenses tied to the retired teacher's recruitment. The Guardian reported that among the recipients is Marc Elias, one of the Democratic Party's most prominent election lawyers. A target letter is a formal warning that prosecutors believe the recipient faces a serious risk of being charged — it is not an indictment, and no one named in the reporting has been charged with a crime in this matter.
The investigation gathered pace after a New York Times report described how aides to Peltola's campaign and officials at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee worked on an effort, internally called the "ballot composition project," to draw spoiler candidates into the race. U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman, Alaska's top federal prosecutor, has said the investigation had been running for months and that the Times report brought what he called a significant surge of federal law-enforcement resources into the state.
All sides deny wrongdoing. Peltola has said she knew nothing about any effort to recruit the second Sullivan, and her campaign has denied involvement. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also denied involvement. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has denied running at the direction of Democrats, saying he entered the race on principle and policy differences. Elias has called the probe a "sham investigation" and framed its timing as political. The Justice Department has also asked a federal judge to preserve and segregate ballots ranking Daniel J. Sullivan, a request Alaska opposed, arguing ballots are already preserved and that segregating them during voting would violate ballot secrecy.
Republicans have seized on the probe: Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has called the alleged scheme a criminal offense. The dispute has turned Alaska into a legal as well as a political battleground.
What This Means
Even before these two races are called, the shape of the next Congress is clear: Democrats will control the House and the Senate when the new Congress is seated in January 2027, ending two years in which a Republican-controlled Congress rarely reined in President Trump. But the final margins still matter. A 56-seat majority would give Democrats more room to absorb defections on close votes, including on judicial nominees; a 54-seat majority would leave far less slack.
The two races also point in opposite directions about the state of American elections. Mississippi's razor-thin margin is a story about counting — affidavit ballots, late-arriving mail, and certification deadlines working as designed, if slowly. Alaska's is a story about trust: whether voters were confused by two similar names, and whether a federal probe launched days before an election was legitimate law enforcement or political intervention.
David Becker, a former Justice Department voting rights lawyer who runs the Center for Election Innovation and Research, captured the timeline bluntly on a call with reporters on November 4. Of Mississippi, he said: "That might take us a very long time — days and weeks — to figure out exactly who the winner is."
What Happens Next
In Mississippi, the watch turns to the affidavit ballot review and the remaining county reports. If the margin stays within a few dozen votes, expect legal challenges over which ballots count — and a possible court-ordered recount, since the state provides no automatic one. Certification is due by November 13, but a clear winner could emerge sooner if the remaining ballots break decisively in one direction.
In Alaska, the ranked-choice tally begins November 18, and the federal investigation will continue in parallel with the count. Prosecutors have not announced charges, and the target letters do not guarantee that any will follow. But any indictment would land in the middle of an already fraught finish.
For now, the midterm story that dominated election night remains technically unfinished. Fifty-four Senate seats are decided. Two are not. And in at least one of them, the difference between winning and losing is smaller than the crowd at a high school football game.
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