The United States has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after next week's midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people briefed on the conversations. President Donald Trump has not made a final decision, the report said, but he is leaning toward a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites.
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| File photo: A US aircraft carrier underway. The Wall Street Journal reports an additional carrier strike group could join about 20 US warships in the Middle East next month. |
What the Journal Reported
According to the Journal, the warnings were delivered to several Gulf governments through diplomatic and military channels. The messages are among a growing number of indications that Washington and Israel are preparing for a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, aimed at degrading Tehran's strength and pushing it toward negotiations.
The report, which was picked up by multiple outlets on Wednesday, stresses that no final order has been given. Trump has publicly said he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and people familiar with his thinking told the Journal that the alternative to a strike remains a negotiated deal. Diplomatic efforts by regional mediators have continued, but so far they have borne little fruit.
The White House declined to comment on what it called sensitive military plans that may or may not exist. In a statement, the administration said Trump "keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."
The Military Buildup
The reported warnings coincide with a visible American military buildup across the Middle East. The Journal reported that the US military is sending an additional Patriot missile-defense system to Israel from Texas to strengthen the country's missile defenses, citing flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement.
US forces in the region have also been restocking munitions, and bomber aircraft and fighter jets are preparing for possible strikes, officials told the newspaper. American troops have been moved off bases in the Middle East where they were considered vulnerable to retaliation, and an additional aircraft-carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are poised to join roughly 20 other warships already operating in the region next month, although some ships could rotate out.
US Naval Forces Central Command added to the sense of precaution this week, advising in a notice that vessels with no need to move between ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz should stay away.
The war is now in its eighth month, and its cost is mounting. The Journal reported that the conflict is estimated to have cost $47.1 billion as of mid-October, a tally that does not include damage to US bases in the region. About 60 percent of that figure, roughly $29 billion, is attributed to munitions such as Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, according to estimates shared with lawmakers.
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| File photo: President Donald Trump at the White House. Trump told rally crowds last week and on Tuesday that renewed strikes on Iran could come after the midterm elections. |
What Trump Has Said Publicly
Trump himself has openly raised the prospect of renewed strikes after the election. At a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, last Friday, he said: "We may do another little Epic Fury. Or they'll agree. If they're smart, they'll just say, let's get down to business. But, you know, I doubt they'll do that because perhaps they're not smart."
Epic Fury is the name of the heavy US-Israeli bombing campaign carried out earlier this year. Speaking at a campaign rally in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, Trump went further, telling supporters: "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks, if you don't mind." He added: "We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Epic Fury and defeated them militarily, financially and otherwise. And it will all end very soon. It could be over whenever I wanted it to be over."
The remarks fit a pattern of public pressure on Tehran. Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran again if it refuses to accept his terms, while insisting that no strike will come before voters go to the polls.
The State of the War and the Diplomacy
The backdrop to the reported warnings is a war that has ground on for months with no settlement. A preliminary deal collapsed in July, according to reports, when Tehran resumed attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, Washington has maintained intense economic pressure through sanctions and a naval blockade that have severely restricted Iranian oil exports and trade.
Tehran, for its part, has continued rebuilding its ballistic missile capabilities despite extensive damage from earlier American and Israeli attacks, according to the Journal's reporting. Iran has warned, both publicly and through private channels, that any new assault would trigger attacks on economic and civilian targets across the region, and it retains hundreds to thousands of missiles, according to reports.
On the diplomatic front, there are few signs of a breakthrough. Regional mediators are still trying to revive talks, but Washington insists on addressing Iran's nuclear program while Tehran maintains strict conditions of its own. Israel has also prepared its own plans and targets for a new attack, the Journal reported, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continuing to push for a resumption of strikes.
There was also a reminder this week of how fragile the region's nuclear picture remains. Rafael Grossi, director general of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, told a Security Council meeting on Tuesday that there has been no indication Iran has tried to repair or reconstruct nuclear facilities damaged in US and Israeli strikes over the past two years. But he also said the agency has not been able to verify the status of Iran's stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium since the United States bombed its sites last year, and he urged Iran to give inspectors access to all of its nuclear sites.
What This Means
The significance of the reported warnings lies less in any single military movement than in the message they send. By telling Gulf allies to prepare, Washington is signaling to Tehran, to its partners, and to its own military that a post-election escalation is a live option, not just campaign rhetoric. Gulf states hosting American bases would be on the front line of any Iranian retaliation, which is why the advance notice matters: it gives them time to harden defenses, adjust shipping, and brace their economies.
The timing is equally deliberate. Trump has ruled out a strike before the midterms, which means the window for a decision opens on November 4. That gives both sides roughly a week of diplomacy, and a week of military preparation, before the situation could change sharply.
Markets have already reacted to the uncertainty. Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday as traders weighed the reports, with front-month US crude jumping 2.3 percent to $102.16 a barrel and Brent crude adding 1.4 percent to $115.47. Analysts noted that if the election passes without renewed strikes, the risk premium built into oil prices could start to erode — but for now, the premium is growing.
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| File photo: A US Navy fighter jet launches from an aircraft carrier. US forces in the region are preparing bombers and fighter jets for possible strikes, according to the Journal. |
What Happens Next
Several things will be watched closely in the coming days. First, whether any Gulf government publicly confirms or downplays the warnings, and whether more Patriot batteries, ships, or aircraft visibly arrive in the region. Second, whether regional mediators make any last push for talks before November 3, and whether Tehran's tone shifts from defiance to negotiation.
Third, the election itself. Trump has tied the Iran question to the campaign, and the outcome on November 3 will shape how much political room he has for a major military operation. A strong Republican result could embolden a strike; a Democratic breakthrough could complicate it.
For now, the situation remains a warning, not a war order. But as the Journal's reporting makes clear, the pieces for a short, intense campaign are being moved into place, and Gulf allies have now been told to be ready.
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