President Donald Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico are set to hold competing rallies in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday night, less than three miles apart, in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. With Election Day one week away and early voting under way, the Texas contest could help decide control of the United States Senate.
Trump is scheduled to speak at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center at 6 p.m. Central Time, according to local reports, campaigning for Republican nominee Ken Paxton. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is scheduled to hold his own rally at the Fiesta Center in East Lubbock at 7 p.m. Central Time. Trump is also due to campaign earlier in the day in Corpus Christi, where Talarico held a rally on Saturday, October 24.
The dueling events capture just how much national attention has converged on Texas. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and a Talarico victory would narrow that margin and complicate the president's legislative agenda and judicial confirmations for the final two years of his term, according to USA Today. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but recent polling shows this race effectively tied.
A Race That Has Defied Texas History
Texas has long been one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential and statewide politics, which is why the competitiveness of this year's Senate race has drawn so much notice. The seat is being vacated by outgoing Republican Senator John Cornyn, and the contest to replace him has become a national proxy fight over the direction of the Senate.
Talarico has led Paxton in most September and October polls, sometimes by margins outside the margin of error, but the gap has narrowed sharply in the final weeks. An average of recent polling compiled by Real Clear Politics puts the race effectively in a dead heat, according to USA Today, with Talarico holding only a narrow edge.
Two polls released in the past week illustrate the disagreement over just how close the race really is. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll released October 22 found Talarico ahead 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, a two-point lead within the poll's 3.1-point margin of error. The poll surveyed 1,000 Texas likely voters between October 17 and 19.
A Cook Political Report battleground poll released October 21 showed a wider gap, with Talarico leading 49 percent to 44 percent, a five-point lead outside that survey's 3.2-point margin of error. A Fox News poll released October 21, by contrast, showed the two candidates tied at 49 percent each, a drop from Talarico's two-point lead in Fox's previous survey.
Money, Endorsements and National Surrogates
The race has attracted an extraordinary amount of money and star power for a Senate contest. Elon Musk, a key Trump ally who has called Talarico a far-left extremist, has supported Paxton with more than 150 million dollars, according to USA Today. Members of the Republican Bush political dynasty, by contrast, have sided with Talarico in their home state, underscoring the unusual crosscurrents in the race.
Fundraising figures reported from Federal Election Commission data show Talarico has raised 68.6 million dollars in direct fundraising compared with 19.5 million dollars for Paxton, while Republicans have spent more than 200 million dollars on outside advertising in support of Paxton, according to Kalshi's October 26 race update. Prediction markets also lean toward the Democrat: Kalshi traders priced Talarico at 65 percent to win as of October 26, though traders and pollsters alike describe the race as far from settled.
Trump has showered attention on Texas throughout the fall campaign. He attended the first midterm Republican convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10, visited a Peterbilt truck factory in Denton on October 1, and campaigned in San Antonio on October 7, according to USA Today. On Monday evening he campaigned in Corinth, Mississippi, for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, before turning to Texas on Tuesday.
What the Polls Say About the Electorate
Beneath the headline numbers, the polls paint a picture of a deeply divided Texas electorate. The Emerson survey found that when undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Talarico's support rose to 49 percent and Paxton's to 48 percent, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent. Emerson's executive director, Spencer Kimball, noted that Talarico's support has inched up by about a point each month since August, from 46 percent to 48 percent, while Paxton has hovered between 46 percent and 47 percent.
"If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3 percent on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits," Kimball said, according to USA Today.
Other surveys have shown similar fault lines. A University of Houston Hobby School poll conducted October 10 to 14 found Talarico leading 48 percent to 46 percent, with 60 percent of independents backing Talarico compared with 32 percent for Paxton. Paxton, meanwhile, has led among rural voters, voters aged 55 and older, and white voters, while Talarico has led among Black voters, voters aged 18 to 34, and voters in urban areas.
The Fox News survey attributed Paxton's recent gains to consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary, a reminder that late-deciding and returning Republican voters could still swing the outcome.
What This Means
The Texas race matters well beyond the state's borders because the Senate majority is genuinely in play. With Republicans defending a 53-47 edge, even a single flipped seat would narrow the margin for confirming judges, advancing legislation, and sustaining vetoes in the final two years of Trump's term. That is why both parties have treated Texas, once considered safely Republican, as a genuine battleground in the closing days.
For Trump, the Lubbock trip is part of a final-week blitz aimed at turning out the Republican base in a state he won comfortably in 2024. For Talarico, holding a rally a few miles away on the same night is a deliberate show of confidence: a Democrat campaigning head-to-head with the president in West Texas, a region where Republicans typically dominate, signals a campaign that believes the race is winnable rather than merely close.
The dueling rallies also reflect a broader national pattern in the final week, with both parties concentrating their biggest names in a handful of states that will decide Senate control. Early voting in Texas runs through October 30, and the final result will not be known until Election Day on November 3, at the earliest.
What Happens Next
The immediate test comes on Tuesday night, when both rallies play out in front of local crowds and national cameras. Campaigns will be watching turnout, enthusiasm, and media coverage for any sign of late momentum, and both sides are expected to keep up a furious pace through the final weekend.
After Tuesday, the calendar is short. Early voting ends Friday, October 30, leaving a final weekend of campaigning before voters cast their ballots on Tuesday, November 3. Polls will continue to trickle out, but with several surveys already disagreeing on the margin, the campaigns themselves have cautioned that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.
Whatever the outcome, the Texas race has already reshaped assumptions about the 2026 map. A state that had not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades produced one of the closest, most expensive, and most closely watched Senate contests in the country, and Tuesday night's dueling rallies in Lubbock are the latest sign that neither side is taking the result for granted.
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