President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36 percent in a new Fox News poll released this week, the lowest mark he has recorded in the network's polling across either of his two terms in office. The survey, conducted less than three weeks before the November midterm elections, found deep voter frustration over inflation and the cost of living — and Democrats holding a nine-point lead in the generic House ballot.
The Numbers: A Record Low
The Fox News survey, released October 14, was conducted October 9-12 among 1,202 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. It found just 36 percent of voters approving of Trump's job performance, while nearly two-thirds said they disapproved. According to Fox News, the figure is the lowest Trump approval rating the network has ever measured, breaking through a months-long floor: his rating had held steady at 39 percent since May.
The erosion is reaching into Trump's own coalition. Approval among Republicans stood at 76 percent, down three percentage points from September and down 16 points from March 2025, when he was only months into his second term. Fox News reported that the decline was driven mainly by drops among voters under 45, people in households earning less than $50,000, non-white voters, and those without a college degree — demographic groups that have historically anchored Trump's base.
The numbers look toughest when voters are asked about individual issues. Just 22 percent approve of Trump's handling of inflation, with 77 percent disapproving. Seventy percent disapprove of his handling of the economy overall, 69 percent disapprove of his approach to tariffs, 64 percent disapprove of his foreign policy performance, and 56 percent disapprove on immigration. Border security is his strongest area, split evenly at 50 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove.
Fox News also noted that Trump's 22 percent approval on inflation is seven percentage points lower than former President Joe Biden's inflation approval rating in 2022 ahead of that year's midterm elections — an ominous comparison for the party in power.
What Is Driving the Decline
Economic dissatisfaction stands out clearly in the latest Fox poll. Six in 10 voters named the cost of living as their biggest economic concern. Seventy-four percent rated the economy negatively, and just 18 percent said their family was better off than it was two years ago.
Fifty-five percent of voters say inflation is "not at all" under control, including 30 percent of Republicans. Independent voters are particularly pessimistic: 52 percent say they are worse off than they were two years ago, while 70 percent expect the economy to deteriorate further.
Recent government data has given voters little reason for optimism. September's Consumer Price Index report showed year-over-year inflation at 3.7 percent, well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, with sharply rising gas prices lifting the headline figure. Wholesale inflation jumped in September to its highest level in more than four years. Economists have attributed the price pressures partly to the ongoing war with Iran and the administration's tariff policies, which many consumers now associate with higher prices.
The frustration is also generational. According to reporting on the poll's internals, Trump stood about 50 percentage points underwater with voters younger than 30 — a group that had viewed him more favorably in October 2024. Voters under 45 accounted for much of the overall decline.
On social media, Trump has continued to project confidence, sharing videos on Truth Social featuring supporters from his recent rallies in Montana and Arizona praising his performance, according to media reports.
The Midterm Warning Signs
The findings could spell trouble for Republicans with control of Congress on the line. The 2026 midterm elections will be held Tuesday, November 3 — all 435 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot, including 33 regularly scheduled contests and two special elections.
In the Fox News poll, Democrats lead Republicans 54 percent to 45 percent when voters are asked which candidate they would support in their House district. Among voters who say they are certain to vote, the Democratic advantage narrows to 52 percent to 46 percent — still a lead, but a smaller one.
Midterm elections frequently become a referendum on the sitting president and the party in power, and the survey suggests 2026 will be no exception. Seven in 10 voters say they plan to cast their midterm ballot to send a message to Trump, with 47 percent saying their message will be opposition to him compared with 25 percent who say their vote will express support.
Republicans face another warning sign on the issues shaping the election. Democrats lead on 10 of the 13 issues tested in the Fox survey, including advantages on healthcare, inflation, gas prices, government leadership, and government corruption. Republicans maintain an advantage on crime and border security, while the parties are more closely divided on immigration.
Fox News is not the only poll showing Trump underwater. The RealClearPolling President Trump Job Approval Average, which combines multiple national polls conducted from September 26 through October 15 — including Economist/YouGov, Rasmussen Reports, Morning Consult, AP-NORC, Reuters/Ipsos, CBS News, and Pew Research Center — puts Trump at 38.7 percent approval and 59.4 percent disapproval, a net approval rating of minus 20.7 points. An October AP-NORC poll separately found 36 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval, with 85 percent of voters calling the economy one of their most important issues.
What This Means
The Fox News poll is significant less for its top-line number than for what lies beneath it. A 36 percent approval rating is historically a danger zone for a president's party in a midterm election, and the fact that it is Fox News — the president's most friendly national polling operation — measuring the low adds to the sting. When even a friendly pollster finds only 76 percent approval among Republicans, it suggests the president's own coalition is no longer an unshakeable wall.
The demographic detail is perhaps the most consequential part of the survey. The voters slipping away — younger voters, lower-income households, non-white voters, those without a college degree — are the very groups that fueled Trump's political rise and gave Republicans their coalition in 2024. If they stay home or defect in November, the party's map changes dramatically.
The economy is also the issue voters say they care about most, and it is Trump's worst. Sustained pain on prices and the cost of living is the kind of pressure that has historically punished the party in power — as Democrats learned in 2022, when Biden's inflation numbers helped cost them the House. The Fox News poll suggests Trump is now in a worse position on inflation than Biden was then.
None of this guarantees that Republicans will lose Congress. House and Senate races will be determined individually, and candidate quality, turnout, and conditions in each state and district will matter. Polls measure the national mood, not the outcome of 435 separate contests. But the national warning signs are clear: Trump's approval is below 40 percent, most voters disapprove of his handling of the economy and inflation, and more voters say they plan to use the midterms to oppose Trump than to support him.
What Happens Next
The calendar now compresses everything into less than three weeks. Early voting is already underway in many states, and both parties are pouring resources into the final stretch. For Republicans, the question is whether a closing push on the issues where they still lead — crime and border security — can offset the economy-driven headwinds. For Democrats, the question is whether they can turn a national mood into turnout, especially among the younger and lower-income voters who tell pollsters they are unhappy but historically vote at lower rates.
Trump himself remains the wild card. Presidents with low approval ratings have limited coattails, but Trump's personal appeal to his base has repeatedly defied conventional political gravity. His recent rallies in Montana and Arizona drew enthusiastic crowds, and his campaign-style events continue to dominate media attention even when the polling is grim.
The elections will determine control of the 120th Congress, which will convene in January 2027. Whatever happens on November 3, the Fox News poll will be remembered as one of the clearest signals that the 2026 midterms were always going to be fought on the president's standing with the country — and that, with weeks to go, that standing was at its lowest point yet.
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