Three Weeks Out, Republicans Bet $1 Billion on Trump to Save the Midterms

With 21 days to go until the November 3 midterm elections, Republicans are sitting on an unprecedented weapon: roughly $1 billion in campaign cash spread across a half-dozen groups. The problem, party officials privately concede, is that money may not be enough to save them from sweeping losses as polls show President Donald Trump at historic lows and Democrats gaining ground even in deep-red America.

President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally. (File photo)

The Billion-Dollar Bet

According to an Associated Press analysis by reporters Steven Sloan and Thomas Beaumont, Republicans are entering the final month of the midterm campaign "increasingly anxious that the $1 billion at their disposal may not be enough to fend off sweeping losses." The party is reckoning with Trump's unpopularity, persistent cost-of-living concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran, which has entered its seventh month.

The cash advantage is concentrated in the Trump-aligned group MAGA Inc., which had nearly $416 million in cash on hand at the end of August and began pouring money into critical races in September. A MAGA Inc. representative told the AP the spending has kept races more competitive than they would otherwise be, and that in some contests the group has been the only one on the air attacking Democratic candidates. Both the group's representative and Republican Senate campaign officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.

But the money arrived late. Four Republican Senate campaign officials told the AP that groups which reserved advertising time last spring paid far lower rates than MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are paying now. By waiting until September, Trump-connected organizations are in some cases paying more than five times what the same airtime would have cost earlier.

Nowhere is the spending spree more striking than in Texas. MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million there in the past month, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact — this in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Trump himself headed to Texas last week to stump for Republican Ken Paxton's Senate campaign, his second visit to the state in a week.

Polls Paint a Grim Picture for the GOP

The latest national polling explains the anxiety. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 5 found Trump's approval at 32 percent, matching the lowest reading of his political career. Among registered voters, Democrats led Republicans 44 percent to 37 percent on the congressional ballot.

The warning signs run deeper than the topline. Independent registered voters favored Democratic candidates 37 percent to 21 percent, with 28 percent still undecided — a large bloc that could swing sharply before voting ends. Hispanic voters, who shifted toward Trump in 2024 when he won nearly half their votes, have moved away: only 24 percent of Hispanic adults approved of his performance, the lowest share measured during either of his presidential terms, according to Reuters. Among Hispanic registered voters, 52 percent planned to vote for Democrats and 26 percent for Republicans.

Other polling tells the same story. A CBS News/YouGov battleground poll from October 4 put Democrats ahead 54 to 44 percent on the generic House ballot, and polling averages overall show Democrats leading by about seven to nine points. An analysis published October 12 by Northeastern University quoted political science professor James Holtz projecting that Democrats would flip about 18 to 20 seats in the House, for a majority of around 232 seats. Prediction markets now give Democrats roughly a 90 percent chance of winning the House.

Trump's response has been to make the election about himself. On October 4 he posted on Truth Social: "I am the candidate on this ballot," arguing that polls have always underestimated his voters. He has asked supporters at rallies to act as if his own name were on the ballot, a message he repeated at the Texas Republican convention and during a recent battleground visit to Oklahoma.

Ohio: The Battleground That Tells the Story

If any state captures the 2026 dynamic, it is Ohio. Trump rallied in Vandalia on October 3 to support Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the Senate vacancy left when JD Vance became vice president and is now fighting former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown to win the seat outright. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and former NFL coach Jon Gruden spoke at the rally, where Trump urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.

Less than a week later, Vance himself traveled to his home state to campaign for Husted, for gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, and for House candidate Derek Merrin, who is challenging Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur in Ohio's 9th Congressional District.

Ohio matters because it is exactly the kind of state Republicans cannot afford to lose — and Democrats smell opportunity. Brown, a three-term senator who lost his seat in 2024, is a proven statewide winner, and the special election is rated a toss-up.

Early Voting Sends Warning Signals

Voting has already begun. Mail-in voting is underway in about two dozen states, and voters can cast ballots in person in 13 states, according to an analysis by Republican strategist Doug Sosnik and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich published October 12.

And the earliest numbers are rattling Republicans. In Ohio, figures reported by CNN show that the Republican advantage among early voters in counties Trump won by at least 20 points in 2024 has collapsed: at the same stage of the last presidential cycle, Republicans held a 30-point lead over Democrats in these deep-red counties. This time, the gap has shrunk to just five points.

Campaign professionals caution that early-voting data is not destiny — party affiliation among early voters does not reveal how individuals actually cast their ballots, and turnout patterns can shift as Election Day approaches. But the trend is unmistakable, and it matches what national polls have been saying for weeks.

Becca Siegel, chief insights officer at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, told Northeastern that Democrats will be viewed as "change agents" as voter sentiment signals a desire for a course correction. "We're certainly in a moment of global anti-incumbency," she said, pointing to recent elections in Brazil and Hungary where voters punished sitting governments.

The US Capitol in Washington, D.C. Control of both chambers of Congress is at stake on November 3. (File photo)

What This Means

The 2026 midterms are shaping up as a classic referendum on the party in power — and the referendum is not going well for Republicans. The ingredients are familiar from past wave elections: an unpopular president, rising prices, and a costly foreign war. Northeastern's Holtz drew the direct parallel to 2006, when George W. Bush's 38 percent approval, the unpopular Iraq war and rising energy costs delivered Democrats 31 House seats and six Senate seats.

This cycle's numbers are, if anything, worse for the incumbent party. Trump's 32 percent approval sits below Bush's 2006 mark. Gas prices have hovered near their highest levels since 2022. The generic-ballot deficit approaches double digits.

Republicans have two counterweights. The first is money: a $1 billion war chest can blanket the airwaves in the final three weeks, and late spending — even at five times the spring price — can still move marginal races. The second is redistricting: Republican-led map-drawing in several states could give the GOP an advantage in competitive House races, blunting some of the Democratic wave.

History also offers a caution for Democrats. As Gingrich noted in the October 12 analysis, a month is a long time in politics. In midterm elections, when only

What Happens Next

 about half of registered voters typically cast ballots, the winner is whoever motivates turnout. Twenty-eight percent of independents remain undecided, and Republicans still hold a formidable ground game backed by that record cash pile.

Voters cast ballots at polling booths. Early and mail-in voting is already underway in more than a dozen states. (File photo)

The final three weeks will be a sprint. Trump is expected to keep up a rally blitz through battleground states, and MAGA Inc. will keep spending at its torrid September pace. Democrats, meanwhile, will try to keep the focus on costs and the war while defending their own vulnerable incumbents.

The Senate map remains the Republicans' best hope of avoiding a total wipeout: Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber, and several of their targets — including Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine and Alaska — remain genuinely competitive. In Alaska, former Representative Mary Peltola is running essentially even with Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, according to Decision Desk HQ's polling average.

But the House looks increasingly out of reach. If the current polling holds, November 3 could deliver Democrats a majority of around 232 seats — and with it, subpoena power, committee gavels, and the ability to block the second half of Trump's term. For all its billions, the Republican machine is about to learn whether money can buy what polls say voters no longer want to sell.