A record 47.9 million Americans had already cast ballots in next week's midterm elections by midday Friday, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, surpassing the entire early-vote total of the 2022 midterms with days of voting still to go. The surge, driven by sharp increases in battleground states, has set a new benchmark for midterm participation even before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
The Election Lab recorded 47,922,669 early votes nationwide by midday on October 30, figures reported Friday showed. That total already exceeds the roughly 45.9 million early ballots cast ahead of Election Day in 2022, the previous midterm record. Early voting was still open in many states when the milestone was crossed, meaning the final early-vote count will climb higher still.
The numbers mark an extraordinary level of engagement for a midterm election, which historically draws far fewer voters than a presidential contest. With control of Congress at stake, voters appear to be turning out in numbers more typical of a high-intensity national campaign, and election officials and analysts are now watching whether the early rush translates into record overall turnout.
A Record Falls Days Early
According to reports, the record fell on October 30, when the Election Lab's running tally passed the 45.9 million early votes recorded across the whole of the 2022 midterm cycle. The tracker counts ballots cast in person during early-voting periods as well as mail ballots returned to election offices.
About 24.1 million of the ballots so far were cast in person, and about 21.7 million were returned by mail, according to OnPoint Politics data cited in the reporting. Early in-person voting is available to all voters in 47 states and Washington, D.C., and 37 states and the District also allow any voter to cast a mail ballot without an excuse.
An Associated Press analysis of voting data, compiled five days before Election Day, had already shown the scale of the surge. The AP found more than 43 million Americans had voted early at that point, nearly 10 million more than at the same stage in 2022. The figures covered 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states and the capital four years ago.
Election Day itself is Tuesday, November 3. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the ballot, along with governors' races and elections across dozens of state legislative chambers. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the House, and a net gain of four seats to win the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
Battleground States Lead the Surge
The increase has been sharpest in states hosting the Senate races that will decide control of the chamber. In Texas, where voters are choosing a senator, a governor and House members, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50 percent increase, according to the AP.
In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, up from 564,500 at the same point in 2022. Texas' two-week early in-person voting period ended Friday. The state's closely watched Senate race pits Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico.
South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, saw early voting jump 83 percent from the same point in 2022, and the state surpassed its entire 2022 early-vote total on Monday, with five days of early voting still to go, according to reports. Early voting was up 44 percent in Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, and up more than 30 percent in Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas.
North Carolina's election board reported early voting up nearly 37 percent on the same point four years ago. In Georgia, early in-person voting broke the state's midterm record on Thursday, and women accounted for 56 percent of ballots cast by that day, compared with 44 percent for men, according to figures cited in the reporting.
In states that report voters' party registration, registered Democrats made up about 44 percent of early voters, compared with about 31 percent for Republicans and about 25 percent for unaffiliated voters or members of smaller parties, according to Election Lab figures. The AP's count of states reporting party data showed about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans had cast early ballots.
Who Is Voting, and What It Does Not Tell Us
Analysts caution that early-vote totals measure who is voting, not who they are voting for. A voter's party registration does not reveal which candidate they supported, and tens of millions more Americans are expected to cast ballots on Tuesday itself.
University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab, has pointed to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data, with particularly strong turnout in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border, according to reports. He has said overall turnout could surpass 2022 and potentially rival 2018, the highest-turnout midterm in a century.
Other experts are more cautious. Charles Stewart of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has noted that voters may simply be shifting away from Election Day voting rather than swelling the total electorate, meaning a record early vote does not automatically guarantee a record final turnout.
One striking detail from Friday's reporting underscored how widespread early voting has become: Pope Leo XIV, the American-born pontiff, cast a ballot by mail in the midterm elections, the Vatican press office said, a historic first for a pope.
The surge also comes against a backdrop of intense campaigning in the final days. President Donald Trump cancelled planned in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa this week in favour of a tele-rally push across nearly 20 states, while former President Barack Obama has campaigned for Democrats in battleground states, including a rally in Cleveland, Ohio, on October 24.
What This Means
The record early vote points to an electorate that is unusually mobilised for a midterm election, and that mobilisation appears broad-based rather than confined to one party or region. The biggest jumps are concentrated in competitive Senate states, suggesting voters in the places where control of Congress will be decided are paying close attention.
The party-registration breakdown has drawn attention, with registered Democrats outpacing Republicans among early voters in states that report the data. But analysts stress that this is not a prediction. In past cycles, Republicans have tended to vote more heavily on Election Day itself, and unaffiliated voters, roughly a quarter of the early electorate, could break either way.
What the numbers do establish is that the infrastructure of early voting itself has become central to American elections. With early in-person voting now available to all voters in 47 states and Washington, D.C., and no-excuse mail voting in 37 states, the idea of a single Election Day has, for tens of millions of voters, already given way to an election period lasting weeks.
The demographic patterns may matter most in the closest races. Strong turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, and the record pace in states such as Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, could shift the dynamics in contests decided by narrow margins, particularly in Senate races where a handful of seats will determine the majority.
What Happens Next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, when tens of millions more voters will cast ballots in person. In several states, early voting continues through the weekend, and mail ballots postmarked by Election Day may still be counted in the days that follow under state rules.
Results in the closest Senate races, including Texas, Maine, Michigan, Kansas and North Carolina, may not be known on election night, particularly where mail ballots are counted after polls close. Control of the House, where Democrats need only a net gain of three seats, could also hinge on late-counted ballots in competitive districts.
Whatever the outcome, the 2026 midterms have already made history at the ballot box. Nearly 48 million Americans voted before Election Day even arrived, a figure that will stand as the new midterm benchmark and a measure of how thoroughly early voting has reshaped the way America votes.
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