A sweeping majority of Americans think they will never see the $5,000 dividend President Donald Trump promised if Republicans win the midterms, according to a new national poll. Just 14 percent of respondents said they believe they would actually receive the payment
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| Supporters at a Trump rally. (File photo) |
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The finding, from an NBC News Decision Desk poll conducted with SurveyMonkey and released on October 18, lands just over two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections — and undercuts what was meant to be one of the centerpiece promises of the GOP's fall campaign. Trump launched the idea at the party's midterm convention in Dallas, pledging to pay every American adult $5,000 if Republicans kept control of both houses of Congress.
The Promise
Trump's dividend pitch was unveiled as Republicans face a difficult electoral map and a string of unflattering polls. At the Dallas convention, he framed the checks as a direct reward to voters for handing the GOP unified control of Congress in the midterms.
The idea did not come out of nowhere. Trump had previously floated tariff dividend checks and DOGE stimulus checks to American households, according to reports — neither of which materialized. The $5,000 proposal is by far the most expensive version yet: experts estimate it would cost roughly $1.2 trillion, and Congress would need to approve the payments.
Trump reiterated the promise days later. At a midterm election rally in Highland Heights, Kentucky, on October 17, he told supporters the checks would go to all adult citizens "if voters elect a Republican Ste and House on Nov. 3."
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| The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (File photo) |
The Poll Numbers
The NBC News Decision Desk poll's results on the dividend question are stark. Asked whether they believe they will receive the $5,000 payment, 42 percent of respondents said they "definitely" will not get it, and another 29 percent said they "probably" will not. That adds up to 71 percent who doubt the payment will ever arrive.
Only 14 percent of respondents said they will receive the payment, according to the poll. The survey is the latest in a series of bleak findings for the president as Election Day approaches: the same poll found his approval at 34 percent and 71 percent of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track.
The dividend was pitched as Republicans confront headwinds on multiple fronts, including the ongoing Iran war and the resulting spike in gas and diesel prices — issues that have eaten into the party's standing on the economy, which voters consistently rank as their top concern.
What This Means
For a president trying to give voters a tangible reason to back his party on November 3, the numbers are a warning. A campaign promise only works if people believe it — and more than two-thirds of Americans say they don't believe this one. The skepticism appears rooted in both arithmetic and history: a $1.2 trillion program would need congressional approval, and earlier promised payments never arrived.
The reaction inside Trump's own party has been mixed. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned the idea could "lead to more debt and inflation." Maine Senator Susan Collins said in a statement that spending decisions "should not appear to be tied to election results" — a pointed remark about linking a federal payment to a partisan victory.
Democrats were blunter. Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, called the proposal a "political bribe." Representative Dan Goldman of New York said it was "corrupt and blatantly illegal." Trump has not responded directly to the criticism, instead doubling down on the pledge at campaign rallies.
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| U.S. dollar bills. (File photo) |
What Happens Next
The dividend proposal will now be stress-tested by the two weeks left until the midterms. Trump is expected to keep touting the $5,000 payments on the campaign trail, where it serves a double purpose: energizing supporters who take the promise at face value, and putting Democrats in the awkward position of opposing money for voters.
Whether it moves any votes is another question. Polls continue to show the economy and cost of living dominating voters' concerns, with Americans blaming the president and his party for the squeeze on household budgets. A promise most voters don't believe may do little to change that — though in a tight midterm fight for control of Congress, even a small shift among undecided voters could matter.
One thing is certain: for the $5,000 checks to become real, Republicans would need to win both the House and the Senate on November 3, then pass a $1.2 trillion program through Congress. Voters, it seems, have already done the math.
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