A slow-moving nor'easter is crawling up the United States East Coast this week, threatening rounds of coastal flooding, dangerous surf, and wind gusts approaching 50 mph from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The National Hurricane Center says high winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous surf are expected along portions of the East Coast over the next few days, regardless of whether the system ever earns a tropical name.
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| File photo: Satellite image of a nor'easter off the US East Coast (NOAA). |
Storm's Latest Position
As of 8 a.m. on Monday, October 19, the low-pressure system was located a few hundred miles off the Southeast coast of the United States and was moving slowly, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters expect it to drift generally northeast offshore over the next several days, according to the National Weather Service.
There is a 40 percent chance the storm could develop some subtropical characteristics in the middle to latter part of the week. If it does develop into a named storm, the next name on the Atlantic storm list is "Josephine." The hurricane center's Monday morning assessment gave the system virtually no chance of developing during the next 48 hours, but kept the door open for a brief transition if the low remains over the Gulf Stream and separates from the frontal boundary.
"Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days," the National Hurricane Center said.
North Carolina and Virginia Take the First Hit
North Carolina's Outer Banks were among the first to feel the storm's effects. The National Weather Service forecast northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph in exposed areas of the Outer Banks. A prolonged period of strong wind can blow around untied objects, make driving difficult, and cause isolated power outages.
A coastal flood advisory was in effect through Tuesday afternoon, October 20, for the Outer Banks, where low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways could see 1 to 3 feet of water inundation. The high surf advisory was extended through Thursday morning, October 22, as waves of 9 to 15 feet were expected to break along the Northern Outer Banks, raising the risk of beach erosion and creating dangerous conditions for swimmers.
The storm also threatens travel far from any particular beach. Floodwaters can rise over roads with little warning, and crosswinds can make driving difficult, particularly for high-profile vehicles. Officials in North Carolina warned that Highway 12, which serves communities throughout the Outer Banks, is one of the routes susceptible to ocean overwash, and temporary shutdowns are possible.
Further north, Virginia Beach was bracing for coastal impacts of its own. Waves of 8 to 13 feet were forecast, and a coastal flood watch was in effect through Wednesday morning, October 21. Flooding was possible in low-lying areas, and some roads could become impassable.
Delaware Beaches Brace for Midweek
In Delaware, the nor'easter was expected to arrive around midweek, bringing high winds, dangerous surf, and coastal flooding to the state's beaches — though no rain and no significant inland impacts were expected.
The National Weather Service issued a coastal flood advisory for Kent County, inland Sussex County, and the Delaware beaches from 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. on October 20. Flooding may occur on the most vulnerable roads in coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal waterways, and some roads may be partially or fully closed.
National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Deal said the flooding will not be as significant as it was during the September nor'easter. Flood levels at their highest crest are expected to be a foot and a half lower than they were in September at high tide. But after September's storm, even lesser flooding could cause problems.
"We anticipate water levels going up," Deal said. "If your protection is gone from beach erosion, you need to take precautions to protect yourself." He said the back-bay areas will be the most susceptible to flooding because the water will be trapped in the bays.
Massachusetts and New Jersey Watch Closely
Massachusetts was also in the storm's sights. The National Hurricane Center was tracking the system off the East Coast, and the National Weather Service issued a gale warning for the coastal waters surrounding the state from Monday, October 19, at 8 p.m. to Wednesday, October 21, at 8 p.m. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots were expected, with gusts of up to 35 knots, and seas of 4 to 7 feet were likely.
"This will be especially noticeable over the Cape and Islands, where gusts to 30 mph are a possibility by daybreak Tuesday, October 20," the National Weather Service office in Norton said in an online forecast discussion. Hazardous seas could capsize or damage boats and reduce visibility, and beach erosion was possible.
In New Jersey, forecasters said confidence "continues to increase" in marine and coastal impacts from the developing nor'easter through at least Wednesday, although significant inland impacts remained unlikely, according to the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. The Jersey Shore could see wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph, building seas, beach erosion, and repeated rounds of coastal flooding. A coastal flood advisory was issued from 3 to 9 p.m. Tuesday for Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May, and southeastern Burlington counties, warning of up to a half-foot of inundation in vulnerable areas.
A Subtropical Wild Card
One unusual twist in this storm's forecast is the possibility that it could briefly take on subtropical characteristics late in the week. A subtropical storm has features of both tropical and non-tropical systems: a less defined and cooler center than a tropical storm, with its strongest winds found farther from the center. Many times, subtropical storms transform into true tropical storms or hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center said Monday morning that the storm-force non-tropical low has virtually no chance of developing during the next 48 hours, but carried a 40 percent chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics within seven days. Forecasters cautioned that development, or the lack of it, changes little about the immediate threats: the wind, surf, and flooding are coming either way.
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| File photo: Powerful waves crash over a seawall during a coastal storm. |
What This Means
Nor'easters are among the most disruptive storm systems on the East Coast, and this one arrives less than six weeks after a September nor'easter already ate away at beaches and dunes in several states. With that protective sand gone in places, even a moderate event can push water into neighborhoods and roads that weathered previous storms.
The slow pace of the system is the other concern. A storm that sits offshore for days gives tide cycles time to stack water against the coastline, with each successive high tide reaching a little higher. That is why the back-bay areas of Delaware and the low-lying reaches of the Outer Banks are expected to feel the worst of the flooding, even as the wind gusts inland remain manageable.
For residents, the practical message from forecasters is consistent: stay off the beaches and jetties, never drive through flooded roads, and check local National Weather Service alerts and road-condition resources before heading out.
What Happens Next
The storm is forecast to linger offshore through at least Wednesday, with marine and coastal impacts continuing into Thursday in some areas, such as the Northern Outer Banks, where the high surf advisory runs through Thursday morning. After that, high pressure is expected to build in behind the system, bringing a return to quieter weather for the weekend.
Whether the system briefly becomes subtropical "Josephine" will be settled by late in the week, but forecasters stress that the outcome has little bearing on the coastal impacts already unfolding. Residents and travelers from the Carolinas to New England should plan on several days of gusty winds, dangerous surf, and rounds of tidal flooding before the coast finally gets a break.
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