Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's fiercely contested Senate race, according to new polling released days before the November 3 midterm election, even as President Donald Trump and his allies escalate attacks on the Democrat's Muslim faith that critics have called among the most discriminatory of any modern campaign.
The race for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters could help decide control of the US Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. With early voting already underway in Michigan, the contest has become a national flashpoint over religion, identity, and the tone of American politics in the final days of the campaign.
The Polls: A Lead, Not a Lock
A CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday put El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. The survey found that the state's Democratic base has unified behind El-Sayed after a contentious August primary, with the Democrat now holding the support of 95 percent of Democratic likely voters, up from 90 percent in polling around Labor Day.
The poll also showed views of Rogers worsening: 50 percent of likely voters now hold an unfavorable view of the former congressman, up from 42 percent in early September. El-Sayed's own ratings remain roughly evenly split between favorable and unfavorable views, according to CNN.
A second survey pointed in the same direction. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by the Glengariff Group among 600 likely voters from October 19 to 22 found El-Sayed leading 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit, conducted October 26 to 27 among 636 likely voters, put El-Sayed ahead 51 percent to 44 percent.
Forecasters remain cautious. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it leaning Democratic. Polls are snapshots, not predictions, and Michigan has a long history of close statewide finishes.
The Attacks Escalate
The final stretch of the campaign has been dominated by Republican attacks branding El-Sayed an extremist. Trump has repeatedly mocked and mispronounced the Michigan-born Democrat's name, calling him "Mohammed" and "Abdul Ramadan" and labeling him a "jihadist" at a rally for Rogers in Port Huron on Sunday, where he also said El-Sayed would "be unable to get a seat on an airplane."
The pattern began the night before the candidates' first debate on October 8, when Trump posted on Truth Social referring to El-Sayed as "Mohammed El-Sayed" and linking him to "jihad" and being a "terrorist sympathizer." He kept up similar rhetoric through a second debate on October 21 and the October 25 Port Huron rally, where he tied El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood and invoked the September 11 attacks.
At a campaign rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on Thursday, Trump returned to the theme, telling the crowd: "If you're Black, or if you're Jewish, and if you vote for Abdul, you're crazy."
Other prominent Republicans have joined in. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., campaigning for Rogers in Grand Rapids on Monday, made disparaging remarks about Arabs. Senator Ted Cruz, campaigning for Rogers in Michigan on Wednesday, referred to El-Sayed as a "jihadist leprechaun."
Television advertisements from the Rogers campaign and allied Republican groups have attacked El-Sayed over alleged links to Muslim organizations. The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Republican Senate super PAC, has claimed El-Sayed receives "dirty money" from an "Islamic extremist group" tied to Hamas. Rogers has also questioned donations to El-Sayed from people associated with the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a Muslim advocacy group that Republicans have long attacked as a terrorist organization, although the US government has not designated it as such. During a debate, Rogers accused El-Sayed of being "bought off by Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda," according to debate coverage.
El-Sayed, who was born in Michigan to parents who emigrated from Egypt, has repeatedly denied any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood or extremist groups. If he wins, he would be the first Muslim elected to the Senate. His campaign responded to Trump's rally remarks by saying that while Trump and Rogers "lie and resort to desperate, bad faith attacks, Abdul remains laser focused on his plans to bring down costs and stand up to the chaos and corruption in Washington."
Backlash in Michigan's Arab American Community
The attacks have angered some of Trump's former Arab and Muslim allies in Michigan, home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Bishara Bahbah, an Arizona resident who founded Arab Americans for Trump and helped facilitate the group's 2024 outreach to Michigan's Arab community, said Trump's Sunday comments crossed "a red line."
CNN's analysis of the race described the rhetoric targeting El-Sayed as among the most discriminatory of any modern election, noting that the Republican argument against electing him has come perilously close to asking voters not to support him because he is Muslim. The analysis noted that Article VI of the US Constitution stipulates that "no religious Test shall ever be required as a qualification to any Office or public Trust."
Republicans say the focus is on El-Sayed's positions and associations, not his religion. Senator Tim Scott has said the point was El-Sayed's views and his alleged ties, not that he is Muslim. Trump himself has acknowledged that El-Sayed's first name is Abdul, not Mohammed, and then said he could call him what he wanted because he is president.
The controversy has unfolded against a backdrop of voter anxiety over soaring living costs and a trade war with Canada that has hit border states such as Michigan especially hard. CNN's polling found that three-quarters of El-Sayed's supporters see their vote as support for him, while 57 percent of Rogers supporters say their vote is against El-Sayed — a reversal in how Rogers' voters viewed their choice earlier in the campaign.
What This Means
The Michigan race matters far beyond the state's borders. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate, and Michigan is one of the few Republican-held targets where they have a realistic shot, alongside a handful of other battlegrounds. A loss in Michigan would all but end Democratic hopes of a Senate majority in this cycle.
The contest is also a test of whether attacks centered on a candidate's faith help or hurt in a diverse battleground state. Michigan's large Arab American and Muslim communities were a key part of Trump's 2024 coalition, and signs of backlash from former allies suggest the strategy carries risks for Republicans as well as rewards. Betting markets reflected the turbulence: El-Sayed's odds on Kalshi sat in the mid-70s for most of October, dipped to around 67 percent in the days surrounding the debates, and climbed back to about 71 percent by October 29, according to market trackers.
For El-Sayed, the polling lead offers momentum but no guarantee. His favorability ratings remain divided, and Rogers' campaign is betting that late-deciding voters will break against a candidate they have spent months portraying as extreme. For Rogers, the challenge is different: his own unfavorable ratings have climbed even as his party's attacks intensified, and CNN's polling suggests discouraged Republicans may be checking out of the race.
What Happens Next
Early in-person voting opened statewide on October 24 and runs through November 1, and more than 1.3 million Michigan voters had already cast a ballot days before Election Day, according to campaign trackers. Both campaigns are now in a final push of door-to-door canvassing, television advertising, and rallies to turn out their supporters.
Trump still has a rally planned in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday, and the president's campaign schedule has been closely watched after he canceled planned rallies in Kansas and Iowa earlier this week in favor of tele-rallies.
Voters will decide on Tuesday, November 3, and the result may not be known on election night if the margin is close. Whatever the outcome, the race has already left its mark: a campaign that began as a contest over the economy and the cost of living has become, in its final days, a referendum on how far American politics is willing to go in making a candidate's faith the central issue of an election.
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